The “smart” Refinery: Economics and Technology

Advances in sensors, automation, and information technology have significantly changed the way refineries operate. High performance computing in physically small devices and high speed communication technology developments have been the foundation for many of these advances. Advanced analytical and optimization methods based on this infrastructure can simultaneously lower costs, increase profitability and improve customer service across the supply chain. The collective changes are sometimes characterized as constituting “smart refining." They allow the refinery staff to better analyze the past, assess the current state, and predict future behavior under alternative scenarios. In this paper, we survey the recent history of these developments and look at likely future trends. Economic benefits achieved through implementation of this technology are explained and a framework for understanding them presented. The issues that have slowed adoption and implementation are also discussed. The Smart Refinery: Economics and Technology 2 AM-03-19 Introduction What is a “smart refinery?” We are all aware of the extraordinary developments that are occurring in the computer and communication area. It seems that almost every day there is another report of the continuing decrease in the cost and size of computing elements and the continuing increase in the availability of communication bandwidth. Advances in software and mathematical analysis have built on these developments to significantly increase our ability to model and optimize refining activities. Many new developments in process sensor and measurement devices have also appeared. These developments have led to new methods and procedures for operating production facilities. The new procedures utilize more comprehensive and frequent measurements of the current state of the refinery, increased use of models and other analytical techniques to compare what the refinery is currently producing against what is expected and to understand the differences, earlier detection of anomalous conditions, and tools to plan future operation with increased confidence. While we may be aware of these developments as individual advances, their cumulative and combinatorial aspects are perhaps less well recognized. This paper will discuss how the combination of these technologies has led to an evolutionary change in the way refineries can operate. This change is to decisions and actions based primarily on the best available prediction of expected future conditions rather than reactions principally triggered by what has just happened. This shift in focus is the defining characteristic of "smart refining." The second related subject of this paper concerns the expected economic benefits from investments in this area. The link between technology developments and improved economic results including increased productivity is not always apparent. Many unsupportable claims on potential benefits are made. Correspondingly, there are many technology developments that are believed to be beneficial but it is not clear how to translate this belief into realistic monetary values. Incentives for Change Why do we need to consider these new technologies for use in refineries? What refinery problems are they solving that can't be solved more economically by other means? In answering this question, three major incentive areas are reviewed below – financial, safety and environmental issues, and workforce demographics.